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The turning point of the demand for carbon fiber composite materials

Views:0     Author:Site Editor     Publish Time: 2021-02-03      Origin:Site

The inflection point of the explosive demand for carbon fiber composite materials is the demand for military aviation.

With reference to the proportion of materials for several generations of military aircraft in the United States, carbon fiber composite materials accounted for only 1% of the third-generation fighter F14A in the United States, mainly used for vertical tails, flat tails, rudders, etc.; and for the fourth-generation fighter F35. The proportion of carbon fiber composite materials has reached 36%, and the proportion of stealth bombers has reached 50%.

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It is the high strength and light weight of carbon fiber composite materials that have become an indispensable strategic basic material in the field of military aviation.

According to the research report, the superposition of "larger volume of new generation models + substantial increase in single machine utilization" will increase the demand for carbon fiber in the future or exceed 50 billion yuan. Similarly, battery life has also become a pain point for new energy vehicles. "Mileage anxiety" has once become one of the nightmare of new energy vehicle owners. The solutions include increasing the battery's power content, lightweighting the car, and quickly replacing the battery. The lightweight of automobiles has been progressing, and carbon fiber composite materials are one of the application scenarios.

It is predicted that from 2026 to 2030, my country will achieve a weight reduction of 35% compared to 2016, and will focus on the development of magnesium alloy and carbon fiber composite technology.

Throughout the world, high-end carbon fiber markets include Japan’s Toray and the United States’ Hexel, while my country is a long-term lag in development, from dependence on imports to independent research and development.

From over 40 during the peak period to more than 10 today, there are only a handful of companies that can independently produce high-performance carbon fiber. According to the elaboration, the import volume of my country's 38,000 tons of carbon fiber demand in 2019 was 26,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 68%;

The domestic supply is 12,000 tons, and the localization rate reaches 31.5%. At present, my country’s growth rate is at the level of 30% per year. According to Xinda Securities, my country’s national carbon fiber production will exceed imports around 2025.

According to statistics, the market demand for carbon fiber composite materials in China has increased from 28,000 tons in 2014 to 46,000 tons in 2018, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%. With the increase in some downstream application markets such as aerospace, sports facilities, automobiles, and wind power, the domestic demand for carbon fiber composite materials has directly increased.

According to Tou Leopard's forecast, the compound annual growth rate of domestic carbon fiber composite material market demand in the next five years will reach 13.9%, and will reach 89,000 tons by 2023. And analysts predict that Moutai's compound annual growth rate is only about 15%.

Carbon fiber has high technical barriers, and because of the complex production process, it requires veryhigh precision and temperature in the production of raw silk and carbonization and oxidation. Therefore, the customer stickiness is very high, and the core suppliers will show the characteristics of being strong.

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